Fed Decision in July?
Live Polymarket analytics for Fed Decision in July? — $22.8M volume. Whale positions, bot activity, and order book depth on PolyCollect.
Leading Outcomes
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82%Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting
16%Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting
1%Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting
0%Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting
0%
Key metrics
Score = Volume + Liquidity + Spread. Whales add a small bonus.
Labels :
- Prime — score 88+ (after rounding), or strong volume + liquidity + tight spread with whales; not Thin
- Active — solid but below Prime thresholds
- Thin — low volume or wide spread (harder to trade size)
- Avoid — dead / illiquid, or market is closed
Not a prediction of how the market resolves
Number of seals (5K+), sharks (25K+) and whales (50K+) present in this market, throughout all outcomes
Outcome Analysis
Per-outcome prices, flow & whale positions
Resolution Criteria
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Related Markets
TrendingTrending by 24h net flow
Resolution Criteria
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.