This guide explains prediction markets in general and how Uncover surfaces data. It is educational only—not financial advice. Always verify rules on Polymarket before trading.
What is a Polymarket market?
A market is a question about a future event with tradable outcomes. Example: “Will Bitcoin dip below $65,000 in March?”
On Polymarket you buy and sell outcome shares using USDC. For standard binary markets, winning shares typically settle toward $1 each if that outcome occurs, and toward $0 if it does not—before fees and any platform specifics. Always read the market's own rules and disclosures.
Binary vs multiple outcomes
Binary markets have two main sides, often labeled Yes and No. Example: “Will the Fed cut rates in March?”
Multiple-outcome markets list several possible results (e.g. price buckets or candidates). Each outcome trades like its own line—you're betting on which result the market will resolve to. In Uncover, multi-outcome events can appear as separate rows or “buckets” so you can compare liquidity and flow per outcome.
Understanding resolution terms
Every market has rules that say how and when it resolves. Before putting money in, check:
- Resolution source — Official feed? A specific exchange? An election commission? The rule text wins if there's ambiguity.
- End / resolution timing — When does trading end? When is the outcome known?
- Exact conditions — “Above” vs “at or above,” daily close vs intraday touch, ties, delays, and edge cases.
Seemingly small wording differences change who wins. When in doubt, rely on Polymarket's written rules for that market, not the headline alone.
Basic market health
Liquidity
What it is: Roughly, how much size is available to trade near current prices (in the CLOB). Uncover shows a liquidity figure derived from order-book depth.
Why it matters: Higher liquidity usually means smaller price impact when you buy or sell. Very low liquidity can mean wide spreads and painful exits.
Rule of thumb (not a guarantee):
- Higher (e.g. $500K+) — often easier to trade size.
- Mid (e.g. $100K–$500K) — common for many markets; still check spread.
- Low (e.g. under ~$100K) — use extra caution; price can jump when you trade.
Volume
What it is: How much notional has traded recently (Uncover emphasizes 24h flow in discovery).
Why it matters: Healthy volume suggests active price discovery. Very low volume can mean stale prices or easier manipulation—context matters.
How to read it: Compare volume to liquidity and spread. A busy market with tight spreads is different from a quiet one with the same headline odds.
Momentum (in Uncover)
In this app, Volume momentum is not the same as “price went up 20%.” It summarizes net buy vs sell pressure in dollars over windows (1h / 4h / 12h / 24h): positive means more buying on that side, negative means more selling.
Use it to see where flow is going, alongside the current odds and order book. Price and flow can diverge—for example, heavy selling into bids can show up as negative momentum even if the last trade tick looks quiet.
Order book & spread
The order book lists resting limit orders: bids (buyers) and asks (sellers).
The spread is the gap between the best bid and best ask (on Polymarket, often quoted in cents). A tight spread usually means cheaper round-trips; a wide spread means you pay more “crossing the spread” to trade now.
In Uncover, spread is shown in cents (¢) in the markets list; on the analysis view you'll see the same ideas tied to live books.
Imbalance
Imbalance in Uncover compares resting bid depth vs ask depth on the relevant outcome token—roughly, who is lined up to buy vs sell at current prices.
- More bid-side depth — more capital waiting to buy (all else equal, supportive for price).
- More ask-side depth — more supply for sale (potentially heavier overhead for price).
Imbalance is a snapshot; it changes as orders fill or cancel. Pair it with spread, volume, and flow.
Big money & bots as indicators
Whale tiers (Uncover)
We bucket large holders by position size in USD on an outcome (from sampled holder data when available):
| Tier | Size (typical band) | Mental model |
|---|---|---|
| Seals | $5K – $25K | Serious retail / smaller size |
| Sharks | $25K – $50K | Larger traders, small funds |
| Whales | $50K+ | Very large positions |
Smart money (when shown) highlights traders with very strong historical PnL in our data—rare, and worth treating as a signal, not a verdict.
What to look for: whales clustered on one side can show conviction—or a crowded trade. A split book can mean genuine disagreement. Missing data doesn't mean “no big players”; it may mean sampling or API limits.
Bot activity
Bots trading in Uncover is an estimate of how much recent volume looks mechanically automated (e.g. tight, repetitive patterns). Use it as a heads-up, not a precise bot headcount. High readings can mean more noise or faster microstructure; low readings suggest more human-style flow—but either way, combine with fundamentals and risk limits.
Paper trading: practice before you bet
Paper trading in Uncover uses virtual balance (guest mode starts at $10 with up to three open positions per browser; when you sign in, you start at $1,000 with no cap on open positions, and your portfolio syncs to your account) against real market prices and outcomes so you can rehearse sizing and discipline without funding a wallet.
- Learn the UI and how P&L moves with resolution.
- Test ideas and position sizes before using real USDC on Polymarket.
- Build habit around rules, stops, and record-keeping.
Paper fills are simplified—real markets have slippage, fees, and latency. When you're ready, move to live trading only with money you can afford to lose.
Putting it all together
- Headline & rules — What exactly resolves yes/no (or which bucket wins)? Who decides? When?
- Can I trade? — Liquidity and spread: can I enter and exit without giving up edge?
- Is anyone here? — Volume and momentum: is there real two-way flow or a one-sided book?
- Order book — Tight spread? Imbalance leaning buy vs sell?
- Positioning — Where are seals, sharks, whales? Does smart-money data agree or fight the crowd?
- Machines — Is bot share elevated? If so, be careful interpreting short-term price.
- Practice — Paper trade the same read before sizing with real money.
Example: reading a market (illustrative)
Market: “Will Bitcoin dip below $65,000 in March?” (binary)
Sample numbers
- Displayed odds: ~19% Yes / ~81% No
- Liquidity: ~$1.2M
- Spread: ~0.2¢
- 24h volume: ~$850K
- Volume momentum: modest positive on Yes over 24h (flow ≠ guaranteed price move)
- Whales: many more notional on No than Yes in this story
- Bots: ~39% (medium—treat as noisy estimate)
- Imbalance: more sell-side depth than buy-side in this snapshot
Interpretation (toy example): The market prices No as likely; large holders lean No; the book is liquid with a tight spread. Flow and imbalance still deserve a second look—narratives can flip fast around crypto catalysts.
Conclusion: In this stylized snapshot, No is the consensus side with heavier whale notional—potentially a lower-edge but more “crowded” view—while Yes is a long-shot. Real trading requires checking live rules, fees, and your own risk tolerance.
Key takeaway
You don't need to be an expert on day one. Build a simple checklist:
- Rules first — Read the resolution criteria.
- Liquidity & spread — Can you trade without overpaying?
- Flow & book — Volume momentum, imbalance, and depth snapshots.
- Whales & bots — Where size sits; how much activity looks mechanical.
- Practice — Paper trade before real capital.
Go back to Markets and explore with this lens—one calm pass at a time.