Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?
Live Polymarket analytics for Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall? — $66.3K volume. Whale positions, bot activity, and order book depth on PolyCollect.
Leading Outcomes
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in China
96%Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in South Korea
7%Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan
3%
Key metrics
Score = Volume + Liquidity + Spread. Whales add a small bonus.
Labels :
- Prime — score 88+ (after rounding), or strong volume + liquidity + tight spread with whales; not Thin
- Active — solid but below Prime thresholds
- Thin — low volume or wide spread (harder to trade size)
- Avoid — dead / illiquid, or market is closed
Not a prediction of how the market resolves
Number of seals (5K+), sharks (25K+) and whales (50K+) present in this market, throughout all outcomes
Outcome Analysis
Per-outcome prices, flow & whale positions
Resolution Criteria
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions: "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan. "Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands. "South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
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Resolution Criteria
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions: "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan. "Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands. "South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.