UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims) - Aug 16, 2026
Live Polymarket analytics for UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims) - Aug 16, 2026 — $430K volume. Whale positions, bot activity, and order book depth on PolyCollect.
Leading Outcomes
Key metrics
Score = Volume + Liquidity + Spread. Whales add a small bonus.
Labels :
- Prime — score 88+ (after rounding), or strong volume + liquidity + tight spread with whales; not Thin
- Active — solid but below Prime thresholds
- Thin — low volume or wide spread (harder to trade size)
- Avoid — dead / illiquid, or market is closed
Not a prediction of how the market resolves
Number of seals (5K+), sharks (25K+) and whales (50K+) present in this market, throughout all outcomes
Outcome Analysis
Per-outcome prices, flow & whale positions
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Lucas Fernando" if Lucas Fernando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026.
It will resolve to "Rafael Tobias" if Rafael Tobias is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Related Markets
TrendingTrending by 24h net flow
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Lucas Fernando" if Lucas Fernando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026.
It will resolve to "Rafael Tobias" if Rafael Tobias is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events