Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Live Polymarket analytics for Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) — $300K volume. Whale positions, bot activity, and order book depth on PolyCollect.
Leading Outcomes
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)
68%Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)
30%Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)
3%Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)
0%Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)
0%
Key metrics
Score = Volume + Liquidity + Spread. Whales add a small bonus.
Labels :
- Prime — score 88+ (after rounding), or strong volume + liquidity + tight spread with whales; not Thin
- Active — solid but below Prime thresholds
- Thin — low volume or wide spread (harder to trade size)
- Avoid — dead / illiquid, or market is closed
Not a prediction of how the market resolves
Number of seals (5K+), sharks (25K+) and whales (50K+) present in this market, throughout all outcomes
Outcome Analysis
Per-outcome prices, flow & whale positions
Resolution Criteria
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Related Markets
TrendingTrending by 24h net flow
Resolution Criteria
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm