Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi - Oct 10, 2026
Live Polymarket analytics for Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi - Oct 10, 2026 — $112K volume · 50% Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 21.5. Whale positions, bot activity, and order book depth on PolyCollect.
Leading Outcomes
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi
90%Set 2 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi
82%Set 1 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi
81%Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)
61%ompleted Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi
56%
Key metrics
Score = Volume + Liquidity + Spread. Whales add a small bonus.
Labels :
- Prime — score 88+ (after rounding), or strong volume + liquidity + tight spread with whales; not Thin
- Active — solid but below Prime thresholds
- Thin — low volume or wide spread (harder to trade size)
- Avoid — dead / illiquid, or market is closed
Not a prediction of how the market resolves
Number of seals (5K+), sharks (25K+) and whales (50K+) present in this market, throughout all outcomes
Outcome Analysis
Per-outcome prices, flow & whale positions
Resolution Criteria
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Matteo Arnaldi.
This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Carlos Alcaraz.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Related Markets
TrendingTrending by 24h net flow
Resolution Criteria
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Matteo Arnaldi.
This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Carlos Alcaraz.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current